Counterpoint: The global smartphone market will grow 2% year on year in 2023, with the replacement cycle hitting a record high this year

The global smartphone market will grow by 2 percent year on year in 2023, according to Counterpoint.

Counterpoint's latest forecast is a downgrade from its previous 6% growth, and it expects the market to remain sluggish in the first half of 2023 before starting to grow in the third quarter.

"Given the increase in ASPs and long replacement cycles, annual smartphone shipments are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in the near term," said Peter Richardson, vice president at Counterpoint. The replacement cycle is expected to reach a record 43 months this year. The replacement period will be gradually shortened from next year, but it will remain at more than 40 months.

However, the global 5G handset market is expected to show healthy growth from 2024 as low - and mid-priced 5G devices become more widely available.

The market will see the prices of these phones stabilize as more handset vendors enter the foldable segment, which will become more prominent with the development of the 5G segment, the report added.