Will the global economy decline?

will not. It is undeniable that the financial market is fluctuating, the central bank is withdrawing from the loose monetary policy, and trade friction is also evolving. However, the International Monetary Fund still expects the global economy to grow for the third consecutive year, with a growth rate of about 3.7%. Even if the growth rate does not reach this level, it will still have a fairly good performance. In view of the loose fiscal policies of various governments and the tight employment market, monetary policy that is now at a historically loose level should be underweight.

Our economists say that the global economic start is strong in 2018 and the pace of growth is coordinated, but not in 2019. The pace of global economic expansion will slow down, and the differences between the United States and other economies in the world will be very clear. Fluctuations in the financial markets and shrinking export orders mark the end of the cycle. These are not an indicator of the impending recession.