The probability of the US recession rises to 23% next year
Dec 19, 2018| CNBC's Fed survey shows that the possibility of a recession in the US economy has risen to 23% in the coming year, setting the highest level since Trump took office.
CNBC surveyed 43 top economists, fund managers and market strategists. The survey found that the economic sentiment under Trump's leadership is at a new low. Respondents expressed disappointment with Trump's approach to economic policy and lowered their expectations for economic growth.
Twenty-three percent of respondents said they are preparing for the next year's recession, up 4 percent from 19% at the time of the last survey.
Most of the respondents believe that the next recession will be triggered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, Trump’s tariff war, and the general uncertainty caused by his vacillating economic information.
Although the recipients of the survey generally have a higher rate of support for Trump than the average citizen, only 52% now say they agree that Trump's approach to the economy has fallen by 14 percentage points from the previous survey. About one-third of respondents said they disapprove of Trump's economic work, up 10% from the previous survey.